Black Friday is on 27 November, four weeks away. Every week until then, we'll track how much of Google Shopping is on sale, which retailers are moving first, and which categories are heating up.
We record every Google Shopping result for the same 11,378 searches each week: about 590,000 listings, across 33 industries. Here's what the first week shows.
The market is holding fire
In the week commencing 26 October, 8.3% of Google Shopping listings were on sale. That's down from 8.7% the week before, from 11.2% a month ago, and from 13.1% at the end of August, when the summer sales were still running. It's level with the lowest week in our ten weeks of data, w/c 12 October.
In real terms, shoppers could see about 48,900 sale listings this week, against 67,200 four weeks ago: 27% fewer.
The discounts that are left haven't got any deeper. The average sale listing is 20.2% off its usual price, against around 21% through September.
It fits a familiar pattern: retailers wind down their own promotions ahead of the big event. The question for the next four weeks is who breaks cover first.
| Week commencing | Listings on sale | Average discount |
|---|---|---|
| 24 August | 13.1% | 21.2% |
| 31 August | 11.9% | 21.0% |
| 7 September | 11.1% | 20.9% |
| 14 September | 11.0% | 21.0% |
| 21 September | 10.8% | 21.3% |
| 28 September | 11.2% | 21.4% |
| 5 October | 9.9% | 21.6% |
| 12 October | 8.3% | 20.4% |
| 19 October | 8.7% | 19.8% |
| 26 October | 8.3% | 20.2% |
Matalan breaks ranks
One big retailer went the other way this week. Matalan has 31.5% of its Shopping listings on sale, up from 17.3% the week before. That nearly doubles its share in seven days, and makes it the most discounted big retailer we track.
Matalan seems to discount in bursts: it was at 26.8% a month ago and fell to 17.3% last week before this jump.
Homebase also stepped up, from 16.3% to 18.8%. And M&S, which has had very little on sale in our data, went from 1.5% to 4.2%: small, but nearly three times the week before.
The early movers ease off
Several retailers that were discounting heavily have pulled back this week:
- Wayfair went from 36.4% to 28.8%. It's still second, but well down from 40% a month ago.
- Very went from 26.5% to 21.0%.
- ASOS went from 26.2% to 22.1%.
Two home retailers are still well ahead of where they were a month ago, despite slipping this week. Dunelm has 15.2% of its listings on sale, more than double the 6.8% of four weeks ago. John Lewis is at 13.6%, up from 10.4%.
Currys is steady at 15.2% this week, but that's down from 24.9% a month ago. Electronics is a big Black Friday category, so it's one to watch.
Lighting leads, appliances cool off
Compared with a month ago, almost every big category has fewer listings on sale. Bear in mind that w/c 28 September was a busy sale week for several big retailers (Wayfair was at 40%, Boots 32%, Very 30%), so some of the month-on-month falls are those sales ending.
- Lighting is the most discounted big category, at 11.2%, up from 9.4% a month ago. Last week it reached 14.3%, its highest in our ten weeks of data.
- Jewellery & Watches (7.4% to 8.3%) is the only other big category up on the month.
- Appliances has nearly halved, from 14.2% to 7.9%. Health & Beauty went from 17.3% to 11.1%, and Fashion from 15.7% to 11.0%.
This week alone, Gaming ticked up from 8.0% to 9.2%, and Health & Beauty from 10.1% to 11.1%. Both are small moves, but both are big Black Friday categories.
What to watch next week
- Does the market turn? The share on sale is back at its lowest. The first week it rises for real is the start of Black Friday on Google Shopping.
- Appliances and electronics. Both are at their lowest in ten weeks, at 7.9% and 7.7%, against 17.6% and 16.1% in late August. Watch for Currys, Argos and Amazon to move.
- Matalan. Is this week's jump the start of a long sale, or another short burst?
We'll be back next week with the new numbers. To see any retailer's promotions week by week, search for it in Merchant Visibility.
How we measure this
Each week, Merchant Visibility records every Google Shopping result for the same 11,378 searches, across 33 industries: about 590,000 listings a week. A listing counts as on sale when Google shows it with a sale price, and its discount is how far that sale price sits below the usual one.
Changes compare the week commencing 26 October with the week before (w/c 19 October) and with four weeks earlier (w/c 28 September). Retailers are only ranked if they had at least 1,500 Shopping listings both this week and four weeks ago. Within the tool, on-sale figures count each product once, across both Shopping results and the product cards in Google's main results, so they can read a little differently from the listing counts here.
